UNCLASSIFIED
Worldwide: New 2009-H1N1 Influenza Virus Poses Potential
Threat to U.S. Forces
Defense Intelligence Agency
Defense Intelligence Assessment
excerpt from wikileaks.org.....
(U) Key Judgments
(U) NCMI assesses with high confidence a new H1N1 influenza virus (referred to by the media as "swine flu") poses a potential threat to U.S. forces overseas and within the United States. The virus can be acquired relatively easily through casual contact with infected persons. The full worldwide extent of the H1N1 outbreak, including the extent of the virus spread, the number of cases, and the number of related deaths, remains unknown because of the lack of specialized diagnostic capabilitiesin many countries.
(U) Based on clinical and epidemiological data from current cases, NCMI judges the 2009-H1N1 influenza virus may cause attack rates exceeding 10 percent per month in U.S. forces. Most cases will likely debilitate personnel for approximately 1 week, possibly longer. Military populations living in crowded or austere conditions where handwashing and personal hygiene are suboptimal are particularly vulnerable to person-to-person spread of H1N1 influenza virus if introduced. Attack rates in such populations may exceed 50 percent per month.
(U) NCMI judges a small percentage of healthy military-age adults may develop severe and potentially fatal illness, requiring hospitalization, intensive care, and weeks of recovery. If large outbreaks occur among deployed U.S. military personnel, they will likely strain and possibly overwhelm military medical capabilities, particularly at the intensive care level.
(U) NCMI further assesses with high confidence that detection of H1N1 outbreaks in local populations, including those near concentrations of U.S. forces, will be limited in developing countries with poor surveillance capabilities.
Worldwide: New 2009-H1N1 Influenza Virus Poses Potential
Threat to U.S. Forces
Defense Intelligence Agency
Defense Intelligence Assessment
excerpt from wikileaks.org.....
(U) Key Judgments
(U) NCMI assesses with high confidence a new H1N1 influenza virus (referred to by the media as "swine flu") poses a potential threat to U.S. forces overseas and within the United States. The virus can be acquired relatively easily through casual contact with infected persons. The full worldwide extent of the H1N1 outbreak, including the extent of the virus spread, the number of cases, and the number of related deaths, remains unknown because of the lack of specialized diagnostic capabilitiesin many countries.
(U) Based on clinical and epidemiological data from current cases, NCMI judges the 2009-H1N1 influenza virus may cause attack rates exceeding 10 percent per month in U.S. forces. Most cases will likely debilitate personnel for approximately 1 week, possibly longer. Military populations living in crowded or austere conditions where handwashing and personal hygiene are suboptimal are particularly vulnerable to person-to-person spread of H1N1 influenza virus if introduced. Attack rates in such populations may exceed 50 percent per month.
(U) NCMI judges a small percentage of healthy military-age adults may develop severe and potentially fatal illness, requiring hospitalization, intensive care, and weeks of recovery. If large outbreaks occur among deployed U.S. military personnel, they will likely strain and possibly overwhelm military medical capabilities, particularly at the intensive care level.
(U) NCMI further assesses with high confidence that detection of H1N1 outbreaks in local populations, including those near concentrations of U.S. forces, will be limited in developing countries with poor surveillance capabilities.
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